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Sanders Takes National Lead as Biden Falters, Buttigieg and Bloomberg Gaining

While Iowa produced no clear winner it still appears to have had a big impact on the race.

We are still awaiting a clear winner out of Iowa, or at least uncontested results, with both Sanders and Buttigieg seeing themselves as the winner and both asking for a recanvass. But while that contest has created as many questions as answers, it is now clear the results we do have were enough to have an impact on the race.

Bernie Sanders has overtaken Joe Biden as the new national front-runner for the Democratic primary, with a fourth place finish appearing to damage the former vice president's candidacy, which has largely been built around an electability argument.

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MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 08: Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) waves to the crowd during the 100 Club Dinner at SNHIU on February 08, 2020 in Manchester, New Hampshire. The 2020 New Hampshire primary will take place on February 11, making it the second nominating contest for the Democratic Party in choosing their presidential candidate to face Donald Trump in the 2020 general election. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

RealClearPolitics, which aggregates poll data, has Sanders ahead of Biden nationally by 4 points, at 23.8% support to Biden's 19.8%. Biden has been the lead candidate throughout the race up until now, other than a short-lived moment where Elizabeth Warren was narrowly edging him out.

Three national polls conducted after the Iowa caucuses show Sanders leading: the Monmouth University Poll, which has him at +10% over Biden; the Quinnipiac University Poll, showing him at +8% over Biden; and the Morning Consult Poll, which gives Sanders a more narrow lead at +3%.

Another national poll was conducted beginning before the caucuses and running through the slow-drip reporting of results. That poll, The Economist/YouGov Poll, has Biden leading by +5%, with respondents contacted between February 2 and February 4. Even with this poll included, Sanders is now at +4% over Biden, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

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NASHUA, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 11: Democratic presidential candidate former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg greets supporters outside a polling station at Broad Street Elementary School February 11, 2020 in Nashua, New Hampshire. New Hampshire holds its first in the nation primary today. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Buttigieg also received a nice bounce from his Iowa performance, not to mention Biden's poor showing, which has benefited both the former South Bend mayor and Michael Bloomberg. Bloomberg had a poor showing in Iowa, but that result was expected, as he has largely bet on the Super Tuesday states.

RealClearPolitics still has Elizabeth Warren in third place nationally, at 14%, but her stock continues to fall after Iowa. Bloomberg is now in fourth place nationally, close behind Warren at 13%, and Buttigieg is trailing in fifth at 10.8% support.

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DETROIT, MI - FEBRUARY 04: Democratic presidential candidate former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg holds a campaign rally on February 4, 2020 in Detroit, Michigan. Bloomberg is planning to skip the early primaries and focus his efforts on Super Tuesday and beyond. (Photo by Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)

Sanders continues to lead in New Hampshire according to the polls, with Buttigieg coming in a clear second and Amy Klobuchar, Warren, and Biden all bunched together in a virtual tie for third.

While a win in New Hampshire would be a lift for Sanders' campaign, allowing him a definitive victory after the Iowa messiness, it's questionable how much benefit it would do since he has been the assumed favorite there for months. Meanwhile, Buttigieg can afford to finish second and still tout it as a strong performance. If he can pull off an upset victory it could prove transformational to the race.

If Warren doesn't have at least a third place finish it could signal the beginning of the end, which would likely benefit Sanders, although bit of recent acrimony between the two might hamper what could have otherwise been a windfall of voters switching from supporting her to backing him.

Scott Olson/Getty Images

DURHAM, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 11: Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) wait for a visit from the senator on the campus of the University of New Hampshire on February 11, 2020 in Durham, New Hampshire. Voters are at the polls today for the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Following New Hampshire the race will turn to Nevada, another caucus state, which we can only hope benefits from lessons on what not to do learned from Iowa.

Biden appears to still be leading there, but his support is beginning to falter in the state. A poor showing in New Hampshire could accelerate that decline.

Sanders is in second in New Hampshire, according to polls, about 3.5% behind Biden. Warren is six points behind Sanders, with a rising Tom Steyer just 1.5% behind her, and Buttigieg in fifth with 7% support.

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