Sanders Takes National Lead as Biden Falters, Buttigieg and Bloomberg Gaining
We are still awaiting a clear winner out of Iowa, or at least uncontested results, with both Sanders and Buttigieg seeing themselves as the winner and both asking for a recanvass. But while that contest has created as many questions as answers, it is now clear the results we do have were enough to have an impact on the race.
Bernie Sanders has overtaken Joe Biden as the new national front-runner for the Democratic primary, with a fourth place finish appearing to damage the former vice president's candidacy, which has largely been built around an electability argument.
RealClearPolitics, which aggregates poll data, has Sanders ahead of Biden nationally by 4 points, at 23.8% support to Biden's 19.8%. Biden has been the lead candidate throughout the race up until now, other than a short-lived moment where Elizabeth Warren was narrowly edging him out.
Three national polls conducted after the Iowa caucuses show Sanders leading: the Monmouth University Poll, which has him at +10% over Biden; the Quinnipiac University Poll, showing him at +8% over Biden; and the Morning Consult Poll, which gives Sanders a more narrow lead at +3%.
Another national poll was conducted beginning before the caucuses and running through the slow-drip reporting of results. That poll, The Economist/YouGov Poll, has Biden leading by +5%, with respondents contacted between February 2 and February 4. Even with this poll included, Sanders is now at +4% over Biden, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
Buttigieg also received a nice bounce from his Iowa performance, not to mention Biden's poor showing, which has benefited both the former South Bend mayor and Michael Bloomberg. Bloomberg had a poor showing in Iowa, but that result was expected, as he has largely bet on the Super Tuesday states.
RealClearPolitics still has Elizabeth Warren in third place nationally, at 14%, but her stock continues to fall after Iowa. Bloomberg is now in fourth place nationally, close behind Warren at 13%, and Buttigieg is trailing in fifth at 10.8% support.
Sanders continues to lead in New Hampshire according to the polls, with Buttigieg coming in a clear second and Amy Klobuchar, Warren, and Biden all bunched together in a virtual tie for third.
While a win in New Hampshire would be a lift for Sanders' campaign, allowing him a definitive victory after the Iowa messiness, it's questionable how much benefit it would do since he has been the assumed favorite there for months. Meanwhile, Buttigieg can afford to finish second and still tout it as a strong performance. If he can pull off an upset victory it could prove transformational to the race.
If Warren doesn't have at least a third place finish it could signal the beginning of the end, which would likely benefit Sanders, although bit of recent acrimony between the two might hamper what could have otherwise been a windfall of voters switching from supporting her to backing him.
Following New Hampshire the race will turn to Nevada, another caucus state, which we can only hope benefits from lessons on what not to do learned from Iowa.
Biden appears to still be leading there, but his support is beginning to falter in the state. A poor showing in New Hampshire could accelerate that decline.
Sanders is in second in New Hampshire, according to polls, about 3.5% behind Biden. Warren is six points behind Sanders, with a rising Tom Steyer just 1.5% behind her, and Buttigieg in fifth with 7% support.