Today the 28 countries that make up the European Union begin to vote in parliamentary elections, which take place every five years. The 751-member lawmaking body makes decisions that impact around 508 million people, and an estimated 400 million people are eligible to vote in this year’s elections. When Europeans last cast their ballots in 2014, turnout averaged 42.6% across member countries.

However, the 2019 elections are far from business as usual for the E.U. For the first time since the European Parliament was created in 1952, far-right parties are expected to make significant gains. Although the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) and center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) are expected to remain the two blocs with the largest share of seats in European Parliament, polls show that anti-immigration and Eurosceptic parties will double in size.

According to the European Council on Foreign Relations, these groups could make up as much as 18% of the legislature after all ballots are cast. With far-right parties expected to form a new bloc called the European Alliance of Peoples and Nations after votes are tallied, they could claim the fourth—or maybe even the third—largest share of seats in the electorate.

Europe will soon find out just how large the contingent will be. After the failed Brexit deal delayed the United Kingdom’s exit from the E.U. until October, Britons will be among the first to cast their votes today, May 23. Countries like Austria and Germany head to the polls on Sunday.

LGBTQ groups worry that the rise of the far-right groups in European Parliament could erode many of the rights and freedoms they enjoy.

Oona Wyns, the youngest candidate in for European Parliament in Belgium’s progressive Socialistische Partij Anders (sp.a), was just three years old when the Netherlands became the first nation in the world to legalize same-sex marriage. Belgium followed suit two years later by passing a marriage equality bill through its national parliament. Today, 16 E.U. member countries recognize the right of same-sex couples to wed, with the Czech Republic expected to soon join them.

Wyns (above) tells NewNowNext the Europe in which she has lived nearly her entire life has prided itself on the values of equality, diversity, and respect. However, the 21-year-old candidate feels there’s a “changing atmosphere on LGBTQ rights in Europe.”

“LGBTQ rights really depend on how progressive Europe is,” she claims. “If the far-right wins the elections, I don't know if I can marry my girlfriend if I want to.”

That comment is a bit of hyperbole, as even a strong far-right coalition is unlikely to repeal Belgium’s 16-year-old marriage law. However, her fears speak to the extremely precarious position of LGBTQ rights on the continent. Since Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski unveiled a 12-point plan to further queer and trans equality this March, several towns in Poland passed declarations rejecting “LGBTQ ideology,” which some have referred to as a softer version of Russia’s notorious anti-gay “propaganda” law.

Right-wing forces in Poland persistently exploited the pro-LGBTQ platform to mobilize the conservative vote ahead of the elections. Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of the far-right Law and Justice Party (PiS), called it “a threat to Polish identity, to our nation, to its existence and thus to the Polish state.” He also claimed Trzaskowski’s proposed LGBTQ-inclusive curriculum would “sexualize” schoolchildren.

Camila Garfias, president of the political advocacy organization Rainbow Rose, claims that Poland—as well as Hungary and Italy—illustrate that LGBTQ people are “very, very quickly used as scapegoats” by right-wing, populist governments. In 2017, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban delivered a speech at the World Congress of Families (WCF) summit—a semiannual event hosted by a Kremlin-backed hate group—blasting the E.U.’s pro-LGBTQ ideology as “an insult to families.” Two years later, the conference made its way to Italy, welcomed by the country’s new far-right leadership.

That’s why Garfias’ organization has launched an unprecedented get-out-the-vote effort across Europe to ensure LGBTQ people turn out to the polls this weekend. Known as “Come Out and Vote,” it includes everything from digital advertising campaigns on platforms like Facebook and Grindr to marching at Belgian Pride last weekend in the de facto European capital of Brussels, which is also home to the legislature.

When Garfias (above, with "Love Trumps Hate" sign) spoke to NewNowNext on Wednesday, she was standing outside of a gay bar in Vienna where LGBTQ activists were holding a pub crawl in support of the elections. The plan was to hand out pamphlets, educate prospective voters, and remind people of the importance of voting. While turnout is low in many E.U. countries—with just 13% of Slovaks, for instance, casting a ballot five years ago—Garfias claims it “does make a huge difference what kind of politicians are in power and what kind of politicians have the possibility to make choices about our rights.”

Although the power of the European Parliament is often viewed as symbolic, Rainbow Rose Campaign Manager Joseph Duggan Lyons claims the body has a great deal of influence “when we're talking about the basic human rights of people.”

“These last five years, the European Parliament has voted on a number of texts and resolutions in support of LGBTQ people on conversion therapy, inclusive education, rights of LGBTQ asylum seekers, freedom of movement, legal gender recognition, and intersex rights,” Lyons tells NewNowNext. “These are all then guidelines that the European Commission—essentially the executive branch—is supposed to follow.”

The European Parliament also exerts tremendous power over member countries during the application process. Before any nation can be accepted to the E.U., they are required to meet certain bare minimums when it comes to human rights. For instance, the E.U.’s governing body has banned discrimination on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation in employment since 2000. If countries like Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey hope to join, they must adopt those same protections for their LGBTQ populations.

Should the far-right make gains in the 2019 elections, Garfias worries the new voting bloc would work to water down those requirements. “They might take the focus away from human rights,” she claims, “and accept ascending countries without implementing LGBTQ rights as human rights.”

But as the rise of reactionary movements like France’s National Front and Italy’s Northern League, as well as the recent Brexit vote in the U.K., appear to be a harbinger for the erosion of democratic norms, this weekend’s vote is anything but a foregone conclusion. Even as Polish incumbents attempt to use LGBTQ people as a scapegoat in order to retain power, support for equality is growing. Studies conducted by the Center for Public Opinion Research show the percentage of Poles who believe homosexuality shouldn’t be accepted by society dropped by half between 2001 and 2017.

Wyns believes the European Union faces a moment of choice. During her campaign, there was an ideal she kept returning to, one that became her unofficial slogan. “These European elections are about love,” she told supporters, claiming she would continue to fight for a Europe where she can walk down the street hand-in-hand with her girlfriend without fear.

“I feel there’s more now than five years ago to protect and to defeat,” Wyns claims.

“I don't know what the future will bring.”