Nate Silver can predict elections like a motherfuc*er, but it seems like the Oscars may not be his thing. The dreamy statistician has all the obvious winners picked, like Argo for Best Picture, Daniel Day Lewis for Best Actor and Anne Hathaway for Best Supporting Actress, but he is unable to give definitive choices in the other major categories.
To be clear, Silver’s forecast seems to make sense, it’s just that the Oscar winners often tend to not make much sense, or follow any sort of predictable pattern.
Take Best Director for example. According to Silver’s results, Ben Affleck is pretty much guaranteed to win, only he isn’t nominated. Coming in second? Kathryn Bigelow, who also isn’t nominated. Instead, this race will be between Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee, with Spielberg having a slight edge.
In the Best Actress category, Jennifer Lawrence looks like a shoo-in for the win according to Silver’s results, but Emmanuelle Riva, down in third place, was not nominated for a Golden Globe Award or SAG Award given her film’s late surge.
As for the Best Supporting Actor category, well we have no idea how anyone is going to be able to predict a winner there, but Silver is going with Tommy Lee Jones.
You can check out all of Silver’s predictions here.