The “Spartacus” Death Pool. Place Your Bets

Fans of previous seasons of Spartacus could always rely on the Starz show for a weekly evisceration or two, and no character seemed exempt from the possible chopping block (literally!) But, honestly, we always knew, episode to episode, that Spartacus would hang on, and a fair number of the good guys, at least, would hang on with him. Yes, last season we lost the lovely Mira (Katrina Law) and Oenomaus (Peter Mensah), but along the way we’ve picked up a few Germaniacs, a Gaul or two, a Syrian stud, a Greek priestess, a Numidian pirate, and a partridgius in a pear tree to more than make up for it. (I never realized it, but it seems like Spartacus’ army is sponsored by the united colors of Benetton.) Sure, Spartacus: Vengeance eliminated most of the villains, but we knew a good percentage of the heroes would usually stick around.

But now we’re almost at the end of the show, and even a poor student of history knows how this tale turns out. Forget wondering who will die. Will anyone even make it beyond the last episode at all? Or will Spartacus: War of the Damned just leave us with (another) giant pile of absurdly-muscular dead bodies?

Well, I’m no Vegas odds maker, but let’s pause for a moment of reflection before the next episode airs and lay down some solid percentages on who will live, who will die, and who might show up in the spin-off. And I promise not to have watched at advance screeners or peeked at online spoilers or in fact done any interent research at all. This is just based on my own instincts and waaaay too much time parked in front of the TV.


“I probably shouldn’t be smiling”

Let’s face facts, gladiator fans: Spread the strawberry jelly on him, Spartacus is toast. Especially now that Crassus has seen his face, there is no way Spartacus can live. Honestly, though, he wouldn’t want to live after his army was defeated. Spartacus has emerged as the ultimate leader, shepherding his people not just through war, but through the joys and difficulties of life itself. He’s not going to abandon ship at the end. Like a good captain, he’ll go down with the ship. And it’ll take two dozen men to drop him, too. He may end up crucified on the Appian Way, but his legend will live on.

Chance of Death: 100%


“All business in the front, party in the back”

I do think one of the Big Four will survive the finale, but it’s not the Gallic gladiator with the gravelly voice and a serious case of honkytonk hair. Crixus is too angry, too volatile, too emotional to realize when the fight is over. There will be no moral victory for him, no telling people about the legend of the rebellion. He’ll die, big and large and heroically. He wouldn’t have it any other way.

Chance of Death: 98%


You’ve come a long way, baby.

If Crixus dies, so dies Naevia. The two have become one, and while Naevia’s transformation has been amazing to see, she has trod too far on the same warrior path as Crixus to accept anything but victory or death. Her death may spur him to some amazing heroic feat; or, perhaps, his death will spur her to the same type of action. But I think it is safe to say that Naevia and her functional (if outdated) dreads are not long for this world.

Chance of Death: 95%



“F*ck it. I wear fur. You got a problem with that?”

I’m a big fan of Saxa. She’s brave and brassy and bold, a woman living and dominating in a man’s world. But she has too much of the warrior’s spirit in her to give up the fight now. And with Gannicus make googly eyes at Sibyl the stalker, she has just that little bit less to live for. I’m not even sure she’ll make it to the last episode, but she’ll die well.

Chance of Death: 90%


Not so esprit de Kore

The first casualty of note from the other side. I’m not quite sure how Kore will die. Helping the rebels? Getting recaptured by Crassus? Caught in the crossfire? Alas, I think that running away from her dominus now means that her fate is sealed. I’ll be curious how a small taste of freedom will impact her, but I am not sure how long she’ll have to experience it.

Chance of Death: 85%


We think we’ll miss you most of all.

Sorry, Nagron fans (and you know I’m one of you!), but I don’t think Agron and Nasir both make it out alive. Agron will likely die saving the man he loves, and the two will enjoy one last tearful embrace (and, hopefully before that, one last on-screen booty call. Come on, Spartacus producers, throw a recapper a bone. Wait—just so we’re clear, I don’t mean that literally.) OR maybe, as Agron hangs on a crucifix, Nasir stands below him. Now that’s a heartbreaking scene waiting to happen. Sigh. I’d love for Agron and Nasir to make it out alive, leave the Roman Empire forever, and open up a fabulous boutique outside of Düsseldorf. Sadly, I don’t think it’s meant to be.

Chance of Death: 75%


Nagron might be the endgame, but it would be a shame to lose this pirate’s booty.

Here’s where things start to get a bit murky for me. Could Castus live? His connection to the rebellion is quite tenuous. He might be tempted to leave if an opportunity presented itself once it was obvious the war is lost, especially if he could convince a bereaved Syrian cutie to join him. Or he could die fighting with the other rebels. I’m not sure. He hasn’t been around long enough to live and tell the glorious tale of Spartacus, so I think Castus only lives if Nasir does. But I’m leaning a little more towards this sexy pirate walking the plank.

Chance of Death: 52%


Do gorgeous warrior twinkies have a shelf life?

Could Nasir be the rebel who survives? Could he live to tell the great tale of the rebellion? It’s possible, especially if either Agron or Castus survive as well. Nasir’s character has undergone a remarkable transformation since he was introduced. He is a survivor. But the loss of Agron may break him. Maybe they need to be together in the end, even if that means being together in death. What will become of Nasir? I don’t know! So I’ll hedge my bets and call it straight down the middle.

Chance of Death: 50%



Dude knows how to party.

I think one of the Big Four needs to survive, and out of the four of them, I think the survivor is Gannicus. Wait, you say—he’s the most devil-may-care and reckless of them all! Indeed. But he has also started to really care for someone (Sibyl) and, as Spartacus says, that may give him all the motivation he needs—to live. Gannicus is a capable man, with friends in many ports. He’s also a pragmatist—unlike Agron or Crixus, if Spartacus gives him leave if the rebels can see the battle is lost, he just may go. It may not seem intuitive. But I just think Gannicus will survive.

Chance of Death: 35%


Saxa’s her biggest threat

Sibyl started out as a stalking mouse, quiet and timid and traipsing about Spartopolis, always following Gannicus. And she’s—well, she really isn’t very different than that yet, to be honest. She’s not going to become a warrior like Naevia. But she has seemingly captured Gannicus’ interest. Let’s face facts: Saxa may decide to chop Sibyl’s head off for messing with her man. But if Sibyl can survive Saxa, she may just survive the Romans, too.

Chance of Death: 35%


I may be cast down in chains, but my make-up is flawless

She may be a Johnny-come-lately to the whole slave rebellion, but Laeta so strongly has the mark of a survivor that Gloria Gaynor is cribbing notes off of her. Last we saw she was sharing a blanket with Spartacus, but I suspect soon they may be sharing something even more. Laeta with a bun in her oven, raising a baby boy with her high cheekbones and Spartacus’s surly good looks? I see it happening, people.

Chance of Death: 15%



I don’t expect Crassus to emerge from all this unscathed; indeed, I think he will be quite scathed from his encounters with Spartacus. But, in the end, we know he wins, and history tells us Crassus is not done here. And who am I to argue with history? I think Big Daddy won’t ultimately be happy about everything that goes down, and he may need some seriously intense therapy with his shrink once he gets back to Rome, but he’ll live to buy whole cities another day.

Chance of Death: 3%


“I’ve got a potential sequel and a lot of classical history riding on my survival”

Unless the final episode takes place on March 15, I think Caesar can breathe easy. After all, he still has many lands to conquer and a Senate to quell. Would we like to see Caesar get his comeuppance? Of course we would! He’s arrogant and sneaky and blond and buff and his butt looks like he has two footballs strapped underneath his toga. Do we want him to die? Maybe. But he’s Julius Friggin’ Caesar! Of course he lives! Or else they wouldn’t be naming the spin-off after him.

Chance of Death: 0%

And that leaves one wildcard…



“Say it, don’t spray it Caesar. We want the news, not the weather!”

Tibby! Formerly sweet little toy-sized Tibby the twink and currently vicious villain and thorn in the side of—well, just about everyone on the show. What will become of Tibby? I haven’t the foggiest clue! I do think this, though: he won’t end up in Daddy’s good graces; he won’t end up as administrator to Spartopolis; and he won’t end up going on tour with a New Kids on the Block cover band. He might die, which could really break his father’s heart. Or he might run off and become a boatswain on Castus’ all-male, all-gay pirate revue (now that’s a spin-off I’d love to see!) Or maybe Caesar will find a way to eliminate him once and for all—if not literally, then at least politically. Or maybe he’ll show up in the spin-off as an antagonist there. Who knows? Not me! What will become of Tibby? I don’t have a clue!

Chance of Death: As good a chance as anything else, I suppose!

You know, reviewing all of this, I seem to be a bit optimistic! It’s hard to imagine everyone dies, since we’ve grown so invested in these characters over the past few seasons. What do you think? Who will live (if anyone)? Who should live? And who will get to meet Pluto up close and in person? Only a few more episodes until we find out!