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The Tony Awards Are On Sunday! Who's Gonna Win?!

Barring any union strikes, the Tony Awards are on Sunday night (airing on CBS at 8pm ET, and hosted by the lovely Neil Patrick Harris), and you know what that means: lots of divas in one room together!  The races for the most coveted awards (Best Musical, Best Play, Best Leading Actor/Actress) are as hot as ever, as this year we've seen a huge amount of new shows grace the Great White Way.  Who is going to walk home with the golden statuette, and who is going home empty-handed?  Who or what will be the biggest snub?  And most importantly, who will be the most bitter?  Check out who I think should win below, and then make your own predictions!

BEST MUSICAL

The Book of Mormon

Catch Me If You Can

The Scottsboro Boys

Sister Act

This one is easy: the prize is clearly going to Book of Mormon.  With rave reviews and darling press attention, this is the show that can do no wrong.  Written by South Park creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone, the show is bitingly hilarious and pushes the envelope for a broad Broadway audience (no pun intended), yet it maintains a traditional dramatic structure and doesn't insult or try to circumvent the genre.  The catchy tunes by Robert Lopez highlight the comedy but don't overshadow it.

Possible upset: The Scottsboro Boys.  If the Tony voters decide to honor this show, it would be because of the storytelling and beautiful artistry.  After only running for a few months, The Scottsboro Boys closed last fall, but this narrative of a group of boys wrongfully accused of rape is truly amazing, and provides a completely different theatrical experience from Book of Mormon.

BEST PLAY

Good People

Jerusalem

The Motherf**ker With The Hat

War Horse

I think ultimately that Jerusalem will win this one: a completely audacious and ambitious show, Jerusalem seeks to educate, entertain, and enlighten in an epic play about magic, reality, and the reality of times changing and gentrification.  It's a more heady play, appealing to intellectuals who may or may not really be able to decipher its underlying meaning, but really want to try.  I give it to Jerusalem simply for it's boldness.

Possible upset: War Horse.  War Horse is an epic show, and an amazing spectacle in its puppetry, but the play itself isn't Earth-shattering.  The visuals and emotional hooks are undeniably beautiful: if Tony voters decide to vote on emotion, War Horse will win, but it wouldn't be the academic choice.

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

Norbert Leo Butz in Catch Me If You Can

Josh Gad in The Book of Mormon

Joshua Henry in The Scottsboro Boys

Andrew Rannells in The Book of Mormon

Tony Sheldon in Priscilla, Queen of the Desert

I give this one to Tony Sheldon: Sheldon has played transgender woman Bernadette in Priscilla in its first production in Australia, in London's West End, in Toronto, and now here on Broadway.  A glimmer of subtlety and sanity in an otherwise outrageously campy show, he seems to be the obvious choice.  Sidenote: if he does win, it would be the second year in a row than an older drag role won this award (last year was Douglas Hodge in La Cage Aux Folles).  Maybe RuPaul should give Broadway a shot?

Possible upset: Joshua Henry.  I would love to see Henry win for his utterly stirring role in The Scottsboro Boys, but I don't think it will happen.  I consider the Scottsboro Boys more of an ensemble, but if the Tony voters decide to vote for the underdog (which Henry is, in person and in the role he played), it would be a welcome upset.

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Sutton Foster in Anything Goes

Beth Leavel in Baby, It's You!

Patina Miller in Sister Act

Donna Murphy in The People in the Picture

I give this one to Patina Miller.  I know she's the underdog, but I would like to think the Tony voters would see beyond Foster's amazing portrayal of Reno Sweeney and realize it's not really a leading role (she has some great numbers and dances her butt off, but there is really no great emotional arc to the character, at no fault of Foster).  Patina Miller sings amazingly in Sister Act, has great comedic timing, and really carries the show in a leading role, filling the shoes vacated by the incomparable Whoopi Goldberg.

Possible upset: Donna Murphy.  Sutton Foster is the favorite, but Donna Murphy is the diva of the category, and she might just sneak in there.  The People in the Picture is a polarizing show - some people loved it and some people hated it.  I can imagine that many Tony voters may have landed on the loving side, so Murphy may take this one.

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY

Brian Bedford in The Importance of Being Earnest

Bobby Cannavale in The Motherf**ker With the Hat

Joe Mantello in The Normal Heart

Al Pacino in The Merchant of Venice

Mark Rylance in Jerusalem

I think Mark Rylance will take this one home.  His performance in Jerusalem is astounding, and it's the type of show that would be nothing without him.  His is committed 150% to the role, delivering a performance that is mindblowing in its brashness AND its subtlety.

Possible upset: Al Pacino.  Pacino gave a fantastic performance in The Merchant of Venice, and to be frank, not many deserving TV/film celebrities were nominated for Best Actor/Actress roles this year.  He could add the celebrity factor.

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY

Nina Arianda in Born Yesterday

Frances McDormand in Good People

Lily Rabe in The Merchant of Venice

Vanessa Redgrave in Driving Miss Daisy

Hannah Yelland in Brief Encounter

I think Frances McDormand will take this award home.  Good People was a truly outstanding play, and it needs to be recognized - McDormand carried the show and breathed life into it, and I think she'll be honored for it.

Possible upset: Vanessa Redgrave.  I would be surprised if McDormand lost, but people seem to love Driving Miss Daisy, and Redgrave could very well weasel her way in to the award with a good performance of a famous role.  The show itself was not great, but larger TV audiences know her name and face, so it's not out of the question that she would win.

Those are my picks, but what do you all think?  I wouldn't be surprised if ANY of the nominees won, but stranger things have happened on the Tony's than an award upset!  As far as performances go, I'm excited to see the cast of Company from the NY Philharmonic performance, as well as host Neal Patrick Harris.  It's going to be a star-studded evening, and I can't wait!  What are you all looking forward to?

The Tony Awards will air on CBS on Sunday night at 8pm ET.

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